Among lingering doubts about housing and credit markets, and a general uncertainty about the U.S. economy, the mortgage bond market tanked towards the latter part of last week.
As investors moved away from mortgage bonds, mortgage rates forcefully bounced off their two-year lows.
A major factor behind last week’s run-up in rates is the market expectation for Tuesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Those expectations sharply shifted after Friday’s strong employment report from the Census Bureau and dragged rates along with them.
Prior to the jobs report, markets were expecting that the FOMC would lower the Fed Funds Rate by a half-percent. After the report’s data showed inflationary hints, though, that expectation changed to a quarter-percent.
This is important to mortgage rate shoppers because inflation is the enemy of mortgage bonds. Typically, as inflation rises, so do mortgage rates.
The FOMC adjourns from its one-day meeting Tuesday and will make an announcement to the markets at 2:15 P.M. ET. Expect volatility before and after the press release.
Currently, the Fed Funds Rate sits at 4.500%.
Also hitting the wires this week is the Consumer Price Index (Wednesday) and the Producer Price Index (Thursday). These two reports are closely tied to inflation, too, so if the readings come in hotter than expected, mortgage rates will move higher in response.
CPI is also known as “The Cost of Living” index. PPI is its “business” counterpart.