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Once Bitten, Twice Shy: ADP Says Jobs Were Lost in December

January 10, 2007 by Scott Kinne

After last week's data showed ongoing strength in the U.S. economy, there is a growing sentiment that the Fed will choose to raise the Fed Funds Rate before it begins lowering it.

FFR currently stands at 5.250% and here is what markets are predicting over the near-term:

After January 30-31 Meeting:

Decrease to 4.750: 0% probability
Decrease to 5.000: 4% probability
Remain at 5.250: 96% probability
Increase to 5.550: 0% probability

After March 20-21 Meeting:

Decrease to 4.750: 1% probability
Decrease to 5.000: 5% probability
Remain at 5.250: 91% probability
Increase to 5.550: 3% probability

After May 9 Meeting:

Decrease to 4.750: 3% probability
Decrease to 5.000: 20% probability
Remain at 5.250: 72% probability
Increase to 5.550: 5% probability

These predictions are important they give insight into how markets think the economy will grow over the next two quarters. A lower FFR would be indicative of a slowing economy and should cause mortgage rates to fall.

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Scott Kinne

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Vice President, Senior Loan Officer
NMLS ID #182351
Office: 703.293.6146
Mobile: 571.237.6241
Fax: 571.317.2478
skinne@fhmtg.com

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